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After NV24 we have FIP-0081 activation which ramps up over a year to always include a 30% simple component, so over the course of the next 12 months the actual pledge will increasingly differ from that estimated by the custom pledge calculation included in Curio which likely lead to underestimations (unless network conditions change I suppose).
Lotus' StateMinerInitialPledgeCollateral has been marked as deprecated, and the new StateMinerInitialPledgeForSector API, which just takes duration, sector size and verified size should be used. This is both DDO-friendly and FIP-0081 aware so should be accurate into the future.
The delta is starting to show up on mainnet now, so it would be good to start using StateMinerInitialPledgeForSector to get the value for this to avoid a mismatch. IIRC there's a 5% slop in this calculation and some handy-wavy overestimations, so it'll probably take some time to catch up but it'll get there.
Similar to filecoin-project/lotus#12341, we use StateMinerInitialPledgeCollateral in https://github.com/filecoin-project/curio/blob/main/tasks/seal/task_submit_commit.go#L239; That method isn't DDO-aware
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